The Worst-Case Scenario

A little more than five years ago it was publicly shared that I was leaving a career in college athletics and starting my own business. This decision came as a surprise to most people in my life and the responses from well-meaning friends were very telling. Within 10 minutes of the press release being posted, I received a text from a friend that said, “I heard the news … but what if you end up homeless?”

I do not want to make light of housing scarcity and systemic issues of poverty, but I did roll my eyes at this text. There was something about the underlying subtext that I wanted nothing to do with.

Looking back, I had sensed that a career change would open new doors for me. Over the last two years, I have seen that come to fruition as I am now mentoring many individuals who want to make a change in life. Additionally, I find myself drawn to leaders who recognize the way they have done things in the past, will no longer work in the future. While these leaders do not necessarily desire to walk away from their careers, their fear of a worst-case scenario is often debilitating for them. I have found that sharing insights about my relationship with the worst-case scenario has been helpful for many of the people I am connected to.

When you are thinking about making a change – in your career or by leading others through a culture change – one of the first things you need to do is understand the worst-case scenario. This process has to be realistic so you can decide if you could live with that particular outcome.

Let’s look at my experience. When I left college coaching, I owned a two-bedroom condo. I knew if my business was slow to start I might need additional income. My worst-case scenario was to rent my guest room for half of my mortgage and utilities, I could work at Barnes and Noble in the mornings, and coach two club soccer teams in the evenings, which would allow me the afternoons and weekends to work on my growing business. If I did all the things on my worst-case scenario list, I would generate the same amount of income that I did as a college coach. The question was, could I live with my worst-case scenario for a year or two while I built my business? The answer was a resounding yes.

The problem so many leaders, change-makers, and visionaries face is an unrealistic perspective of their worst-case scenario. We need to be honest about our worst-case scenario. Anything less than honesty traps us in our current state of being.

A healthy relationship with the worst-case scenario puts fear in its proper place.

We need leaders who can model the decision to bravely step into a new space. When uncertainty and risk abound, when our teammates and colleagues are worried that things are falling apart, we need leaders who will celebrate the fact that things may actually be falling into place. What others may perceive as a breakdown change-makers often see as a breakthrough.

The process of falling apart and falling into place can feel very similar. Breakdowns and breakthroughs often happen simultaneously. Authentic leaders must have a healthy relationship with the realistic worst-case scenario. In doing so they open up a world of endless possibilities.  

Every boat has an anchor. Please don’t be a leader – of your life or of others – who tosses an anchor and commits to living with it forever. Anchors are seasonal. When storms arrive or when opportunities are bursting on the horizon, we need people who are willing to pull up an anchor and explore new what could be.

If fear is limiting your work in the world, I encourage you to have an honest conversation with yourself to determine your realistic worst-case scenario. If you can live with that scenario, then you are free to move forward, and in doing so you may discover the worst-case scenario was better than your current reality.

And for the record, I didn’t have to do anything that was on my worst-case scenario list but being at peace with that possibility gave me the freedom to take a big risk.

Lead on friends.

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